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Colby Smith

Профиль Vively

@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com

SCOOP: Warsh is considering reducing the number of policy meetings the Fed holds each year. He raised the idea at this week's meeting, according to four people with knowledge of the situation

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NEW: The Fed is in the business of "performance," Warsh said on Wednesday. It did not take long for markets to signal they were unhappy with his. Warsh reiterated tough talk on inflation but stopped short of embracing the prospects of higher rates, which many believe are necessary to address it

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The Fed's July meeting has officially kicked off. Our preview of the surprisingly uncertain decision is here: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed’s New Chairman Faces His Biggest Test YetKevin M. Warsh, who has said the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation, must decide whether he wants to push for an interest-rate increase at this week’s policy meeting.www.nytimes.com
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NEW: Cooler inflation data this week helped to quiet calls for a July rate hike, but Fed officials have not written off the possibility of a move soon after What the Fed ends up having to do depends on the trajectory for inflation, and some policymakers seem more patient than others

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Warsh to set to reiterate to lawmakers on Tuesday his commitment to getting inflation down. He says the Fed will set policy "right" such that "the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/b... @nytimes.com

Warsh to Reiterate Fed’s Pledge to Get Inflation DownKevin M. Warsh, since becoming chairman of the Federal Reserve, has declined to say whether he supports higher interest rates to tame price pressures.www.nytimes.com
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WALLER: "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term." "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/b... @nytimes.com

Fed Official Warns of Higher Rates if Inflation Stays ElevatedChristopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said he needs to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident about the outlook.www.nytimes.com
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A few Fed officials said there was a case for a rate hike at Warsh's first meeting, according to minutes from the June gathering. Officials are evenly split on the need for hikes to combat inflation and Warsh's opposition to forward guidance has left investors guessing on the next move

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At Sintra, Warsh says further details on his five task forces will likely be announced next week. Our piece from earlier this week on how Warsh has already begun to change the Fed gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b...

How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fedwww.nytimes.com
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Warsh on the AI boom: "We can see it on the demand side, but it's up to the central bank to decide whether it's inflationary"

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The Supreme Court's decision to let Cook stay on as a Fed governor is no doubt a victory for the central bank's independence. But the narrow ruling did not foreclose the president’s ability to try to dismiss officials in the future www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social

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Cook is allowed to stay in her job, citing no due process. Court rules 5-4 with Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Jackson in the majority.

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A lot of these dynamics were captured in June's policy meeting. Procedurally, it followed the same structure as in the past but in terms of substance it was starkly different The streamlined statement and price stability pledge were instigated by Warsh, according to people familiar with the matter

Colby Smith

NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com

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NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com

How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fedwww.nytimes.com
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New forecasts from Williams at the New York Fed: Expects real GDP growth around 2.25% this year through the next two years as the unemployment rate edges down to 4% in 2028 Fed to reach its 2% inflation target in 2028. Headline PCE to decline to 3.5% by year-end (4.1% as of May)

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One aspect of the inflation debate at the Fed centers around the best measure for underlying price pressures. Warsh has talked about the value of trimmed mean, which strips out outliers. One risk is that policymakers will focus on whichever measure gives them the answer they prefer

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NEW: If the deal to end the Iran war holds, the worst of the recent inflation surge could soon be over. But the Fed’s inflation problem is far from fixed. The question officials are grappling with is just how patient they can afford to be in waiting for underlying price pressures to ease

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More plaudits for Warsh during Bessent's interview with @cnbc.com this morning. He backed Warsh getting rid of forward guidance and his "tough" message on inflation

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Greenspan was the only Fed chair that Warsh singled out at his swearing-in ceremony back in May. From communications to alternative data, our piece on how Warsh is seeking to carry on his legacy www.nytimes.com/2026/06/22/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social

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NEW: Markets have been quick to fill a void left by Warsh at his first Fed meeting, having abstained from policy guidance. His approach has the benefit of carving out flexibility for the Fed. But it also raises the risk that he will not have as firm a grip on the narrative that takes hold

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Three things to watch at Warsh's first Fed meeting: 1) Is this the end of policy guidance from the Fed chair? 2) Just how does Warsh characterize the extent of the Fed's inflation problem? 3) What does Warsh mean by regime change? www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/b... @nytimes.com

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s June Meetingwww.nytimes.com
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