Deputy director, Centre for European Reform, London @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social . Supporter of democracy, the rule of law, the EU & Ukraine. Opponent of authoritarianism, corruption & Putin's Russia.
Great thread on Soviet and Russian imperialism & Western failure to recognise it for what it is & oppose it accordingly.
Gavril Ducu 🇷🇴 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 🇳🇱 🇪🇺 🇺🇦I have been reading Amara Graps’ latest piece on the Soviet takeover of the Baltic states. It is an extraordinary piece of historical work, but it left me thinking about something that bothers me for a long time. nafoforum.org/magazi...
Totally agree - I have argued in favour of providing fighter cover, at least over western Ukraine, & helping Ukraine to increase its deep strike capability, for >2 years: www.cer.eu/publications... . Russia shouldn't be allowed to respond to UA successes by pounding UA civilians.
Does it matter if Ukraine loses?Ukraine is retreating and Russia is advancing, militarily and politically. Western leaders seem to underestimate both the impact of Ukraine’s defeat and the West’s ability to prevent it.www.cer.euChatham HouseUkraine’s air defence faces a crisis with Russia’s missile and drone production outstripping Ukraine’s ability to shoot them down. Europe can help now by providing fighter cover, or delivering more offensive weapons.
An extremely important statement of principle. Trump's willingness to abandon this in relation to Ukraine was a shocking departure from the longstanding US position on sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Sven-Erik VolbergOTD 86 years ago today, the U.S. issued the Welles Declaration—refusing to recognize the illegal Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Srating that sovereignty cannot be extinguished by illegal military occupation 🧵 1/4
Seems like the Trump administration, not Europe, is doing a pretty good job of ending Western civilisation. But this is a reminder to European governments who were relieved at how well NATO's Ankara summit went, that the US is anything but a reliable ally at present.
Anne ApplebaumThe State Department has just put out a tender, offering funding of up to $3 million to European organizations who want to fight against "Supra-national institutions" - presumably the EU - and governments who seek to regulate the internet and end Western Civilization. www.state.gov/drl-nofo-dev...
This seems to me a bad move at a time when Ukraine has been having battlefield success. Fedorov has a high reputation, not only in the West but in UA, has been effective at getting innovative tech deployed, & is laser-focused on increasing the human & material cost of the war to Russia.
The Kyiv Independent⚡️Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov after military leadership meeting, source says. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko has been offered to become Ukraine's next defense minister, a lawmaker from the governing Servant of the People party told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity.
This seems to me like a bad move at a time when Ukraine has been having battlefield success. Fedorov has a high reputation, not only in the West but in UA, & has been effective at getting innovative tech deployed, & laser-focused on increasing the human & material cost of the war to Russia.
The Kyiv Independent⚡️Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov after military leadership meeting, source says. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko has been offered to become Ukraine's next defense minister, a lawmaker from the governing Servant of the People party told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity.
Given his behaviour as foreign minister, I'm surprised it wasn't Gazprom. Although given Gazprom's financial situation, I guess BYD looks like a better proposition.
Finbarr BerminghamViktor Orban's long time foreign minister has joined BYD! Péter Szijjártó has resigned from Parliament to join Chinese car giant BYD as the executive responsible for the company's external relations and the development of new business divisions. Via Viktória Serdült on X
My new piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social : Ukraine can't become a full member of the EU without doing all its homework, but the EU can't leave it in limbo until it has finished. Both sides need some creativity & flexibility - & an appreciation of where their interests lie.
Centre for European ReformThe #EU & #Ukraine have opened accession negotiations, but full membership is still far away. The EU must respond faster to the geopolitical imperative of keeping Ukraine in its camp. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR
Excellent piece for @elisabettaco.bsky.social to sign off with, as she leaves @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social for @agoraew.bsky.social . In short, allowing European heavy industry to delay cuts to emissions won't help long-term competitiveness.
Centre for European ReformWhile worries about the EU’s global competitiveness have taken centre stage at recent EU leaders’ summits, Europe is split over whether it should stay the course on carbon pricing. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @elisabettaco.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/iYAV6yt
Good piece by independent analyst and former @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Clara Marina O'Donnell fellow Megan Ferrando on what the EU should do to help Lebanon.
Centre for European ReformMegan Ferrando examines how the EU’s strong humanitarian & state-building support for #Lebanon has not been matched by diplomatic influence, limiting its ability to shape the conditions for a lasting ceasefire and regional stability. 🇪🇺 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight: buff.ly/Rtkj8SF
NATO's Ankara summit declaration is an improvement on The Hague declaration in 2025, particularly in acknowledging that Ukraine contributes to transatlantic security. But will people remember these words, or Trump threatening to invade Greenland & banning trade w Spain? www.nato.int/en/about-us/...
The Ankara Summit DeclarationThe Ankara Summit Declarationwww.nato.intImportant piece on Russia's constant efforts to undermine Western democracies - including the UK. Successive governments have done too little, both defensively and offensively, to make it less attractive for Russia to keep doing this.
The CitizensThe Kremlin's corrosion campaign relies on ordinary people doing ordinary things — and the ordinariness is the point.
Congratulations to @thomasmaddock.bsky.social, Clara Marina O'Donnell fellow at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, on a very good piece on the need for the EU & Turkiye to improve ties, in the interests of both of them. (reposted because of a glitch with the link)
Centre for European ReformA new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @thomasmaddock.bsky.social sets out what steps both sides can take to improve ties. 🇪🇺 🇹🇷 Read here: buff.ly/GSdO3WI
I have been making a similar point for some years: if Putin says Russia is at war with NATO, it doesn't matter if NATO says it isn't at war with Russia: they are at war. How you fight the war is a different matter, but if you keep pretending you're at peace, you're in trouble.
Kristian Kiehling"If one party is at war with another, and the other party does not realize it is at war, the party who knows it's at war almost always has the advantage and usually wins." sfg.media/en/a/russia-...
Plenty of good quotes from the work of my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @sandertordoir.bsky.social & Brad Setser on China Shock 2.0 & its challenges.
Wester van Gaal€31bn in 2023 alone "As far as Germany and the car industry is concerned, comparable sums of money were available for reinvestment in the form of record-breaking profits. But rather than being plowed back into much needed new investment, they were paid out to shareholders in the form of dividends."
In 2016 hardly anyone in the Leave campaign paid any attention to Brexit's possible effects on Northern Ireland, despite warnings from John Major and Tony Blair. Where do things stand ten years later? Hear from @otoolematthew.bsky.social & @adampayne26.bsky.social at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.
Centre for European Reform📅 Join us – 1/7/26: Hybrid discussion on 'Brexit ten years on: Northern Ireland and its future' with @otoolematthew.bsky.social and @adampayne26.bsky.social Email events@cer.eu for info & registration
Something symbolic about Keir Starmer's resignation speech with the EU anthem in the background: much of UK's recent political instability came fm inability to accept being a normal European country, not a global power; & many of the limits on what Labour cd do in power flowed fm Brexit's econ harm.
General Boleswtf is that music?