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Impressive heavy rainfall event in the Hudson Valley and Capital Region of NY. Schodack NYSM site recording 9"+ in the past 24 hours. Heavy rainfall will continue through much of today due to a slow moving low-pressure area.

It's like dusk in Albany right now with a very thick layer of smoke blocking out the sun and an orange tint to the sky. Approaching the same feel as June 2023. Smells like campfire outside.

Thick smoke, which is mostly high up in the atmosphere, has overspread Albany. The smoke is from massive wildfires burning in SW Ontario.

Tues. (7/14) severe weather setup in S Quebec & N New England is notable & unusual for this region. 00Z NSSF WRF shows supercells in the St. Lawrence region, growing into a powerful mesoscale convective system that sweeps across N New England in the evening. Significant severe hazards possible.

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Band of 1-2"+/hour rainfall rates setting up from the Poconos to lower Hudson Valley to coastal CT with slow cell movement and training. Escalating flash flooding overnight, especially in hilly and urban areas.

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After the heatwave, comes the water? Increasing signal for a slow moving storm system and moist airmass combining to produce heavy rainfall somewhere over the Northeast early next week.

One of the more lightning active storms I can remember in Albany. Felt like a classic Midwest evening thunderstorm.

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Impressive mesoscale convective system in southern Ontario. As instability builds, with sufficient shear, MCS looks like it should maintain itself and potentially produce a swath of damaging winds as it moves SE over Upstate NY.

Shortwave infrared animation shows the terrifying speed at which fires are spreading in the Four Corners region

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EC ensemble mean high temperature for next Thursday for NYC is 103 F. That is a strong signal for extreme and dangerous heat next week.

University at Albany and University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez students launching weather balloons this week to study daily cycle of thunderstorms.

Newark has been sitting under a stationary band all morning and has one of the higher totals in the NYC Metro area at 27.1”, which is very close to their record for a snowstorm.

4” in the last hour and 32.8” total at Providence! Storm total sets a record for most snow in a single storm at Providence, easily beating the mighty Blizzard of ‘78. Heavy snow looks to continue there for several more hours.

It’s so fluffy!

Freezing rain has caused widespread power outages, which will continue to increase as winds pick up behind the cold front, causing additional tree and line failures, and freezing rain continues to fall across N GA, SC, NC, and VA.

00Z HRRR forecasted flat ice accumulations are downright scary. Maximum ice corridor from TX to TN and another maximum in N GA through S Appalachia look to be areas that will see the worst of it with extensive tree & power grid damage. These areas also tend to have high socioeconomic vulnerability.

Just putting this out there with a major, crippling winter storm on the horizon.

Upcoming weekend winter storm needs to be watched for potential to produce a large swath of freezing rain, with potentially significant accretion and impacts, somewhere across the South. 12Z ECMWF shows a really nasty scenario 😬.

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NCAR provides the facilities, tools, & data critical for atmospheric sci education & research. Leading computer models of the Earth System are developed here. The training, continuing education, & sci exchanges NCAR makes possible are irreplaceable. Its dismantling would be chaotic & devastating.

-1F this morning at Albany, which breaks the record low for the date. Fresh snowpack, calm winds, and clear skies set up ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Last time a record low was broken in December in Albany was 1989, so definitely a rare occurrence.