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On Discord, Kalshi traders who had money on the line discussed ways of changing contract markets, like requiring that someone be photographed before a market is resolved. So far, Kalshi hasn’t announced any changes.

This may seem ridiculous, because it is, but it shows how falsehoods and misinformation, whether intentional or not, can result in huge payouts, when a “source agency” reports something — there being no safeguard or backstop for false info is a huge structural vulnerability

After days of leaving the Brad Pitt situation unresolved, and lots of internal debate at Kalshi, they resolved the market to Y, citing the network affiliates who falsely said Pitt was there. Some $300k was lost from traders who bet Pitt wouldn’t be there, according to Kalshi API data.

This sparked a huge debate among traders, who had millions of dollars on the line. On one side, “rulescucks,” or those who read contract terms hyper-literally, sometimes in spite of reality. On the other side were those who took the N position, who say, well, he never attended.

The Kalshi market on who would attend (Y or N) resolved based on reporting from “source agencies,” including NBC and ABC, which had affiliate sites falsely report Pitt was there after the live announcer flubbed.

Example of a prediction market paying out for unreality: A live announcer mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt during the World Cup final, some outlets erroneously reported it, and a Kalshi attendance market resolved yes he attended, when he in fact was not there. Here’s why this happened:

Kalshi's standoff with Wisconsin over election betting could be a preview of the next big prediction market fight. Election integrity experts fear situations like an election poll worker slowing the count or undercounting in order to cash in on a prediction market bet. www.npr.org/2026/07/27/n...

Wisconsin Elections Commission warning voters about using Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of midterms: “Voters who place bets on elections and then try to vote in that election may be subject to voter qualification … and could also result in a referral to the District Attorney”

This was a really great discussion, give it a listen!

Had fun hopping on @chrislhayes.bsky.social’s great podcast Why Is This Happening to chat prediction market mania, how we got here and where all this crazy-making madness is heading open.spotify.com/episode/3mKo...

A gaming scholar put it to me this way: "If I were just some guy in a smokey back room of a bar doing what Kalshi and Polymarket are doing, I'd be in jail."

I calculated that state-licensed sports betting apps contribute about $4 billion a year in state taxes, which go toward schools, roads, problem gambling programs. Kalshi, which is regulated by the Trump administration, doesn’t pay these taxes.

NEW from me: Kalshi says it’s not a sports gambling app. Since the World Cup started, it’s taken in $40 billion in sports bets, 10 times more than what DraftKings and FanDuel are expected to see. www.npr.org/2026/07/17/n...

WH Press Sec Karoline Leavitt said his behavior is “a disgrace,” & he is on unpaid administrative leave. A different teleprompter operator will be used for Trump’s speech tonight, where Kalshi traders have more than $1M on the line over whether he’ll say things like “fake news” and “rigged election”

Trump would sometimes give him a shout-out, like he did at a Reno campaign stop. "I have a guy, Gabe, he's excellent. I've had some real bad ones, but I have Gabe, some of the bad ones, they go so fast. I will go and I say, slow the damn thing," Trump said. "No, a good one is really like gold."

www.politico.com/news/2020/02...

Also, incredible: "Hired by chance after the Trump campaign Googled “teleprompters” and the company he worked for in New York came up, Perez has become the one person Trump trusts to manage his oratorical acrobatics, embellishments and ad-libs during even the most scripted appearances."

White House teleprompter operator as Kalshi Mention Market sharp is a designation as 2026 as they come www.npr.org/2026/07/16/n...

NEW: Rep. Krishnamoorthi sent a letter to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan today requesting information about its paid influencer partnerships where election denialism was amplified. krishnamoorthi.house.gov/sites/evo-su...

nothing says just how destigmatized and normalized gambling has become like this stat: American adults are more likely to place a bet than read a book