Meteorologist and journalist. I cover wacky weather, changing climate, and how we live, love, work, get around, and dream.
#Dolphin is the planet's second Cat 5 in less than a week – and it's the kind you would expect with a strong El Niño coming on.
Irene SansWhile the Atlantic is calm, Genevieve also loses strength... but in the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon Dolphin travels over very warm waters with very low wind shear. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/hist... (✍️ @bhensonweather.bsky.social & @drjeffmasters.bsky.social )
Down to the wire in Denver as well as nationally. Denver's July avg thru 7/28 is 78.8F, well ahead of all other months on record except for July 2012 (78.9F). Forecast thru Fri is ever so slightly milder. So most likely July will be Denver's second-hottest month in 155 years of recordkeeping.
Climatologist49It's going to be a close call, but it now appears more likely than not that July 2026 will be the warmest month on record in the Contiguous U.S. As of today, we are essentially tied with July 1936 and July 2012. 🔥
Blink and you might have missed it, but #Genevieve briefly hit Cat 5 strength off Mexico's Pacific coast. It's still a Cat 4 powerhouse set to slowly spin down offshore. Meanwhile, a weakening #Fausto will push big swells and gusty winds toward Hawaii. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/gene...
Genevieve becomes the first Category 5 hurricane of 2026 » Yale Climate ConnectionsAs it feasts on near-record oceanic warmth, Genevieve will stay safely out to sea.yaleclimateconnections.orgThese are heat indexes, not actual temps. To call that fact “cold comfort” is a colossal understatement.
Alan GerardMmmmmm, toasty
Not your average tropical storm, for multiple reasons! More here from @irenesans.bsky.social via @climateconnections.bsky.social
Irene SansBertha has not produced much rain on land, but there are plenty of heat alerts up! (not how it usually goes with tropical systems) Here's why, also a look at the rest of the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/the-...
Newborn, slow-moving Tropical Depression 2 in the NE Gulf is predicted to become a tropical storm by Monday, perhaps reaching SE LA by Wed. Similar to TS Arthur, #TD2 could dump heavy rains from the Gulf Coast well to its northeast as the week unfolds. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/td-2...
TD 2 predicted to strengthen near upper Gulf Coast » Yale Climate ConnectionsForecast to become Tropical Storm Bertha, this sprawling system could drop pockets of torrential rain over the Gulf Coast and Southeast.yaleclimateconnections.orgHigh risk of excessive rain > flash flooding for parts of SW TX through 7 AM CDT Friday 7/17: "Areas of slow-moving, heavy rainfall are expected to continue...exacerbating the catastrophic impacts that unfolded across portions of the region overnight." www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessiv...
The Guadalupe River at Centerpoint TX, just downstream from Kerrville, crested this AM at 37.94”— just 2 feet below the level reached in last summer’s catastrophic flood. 1. 39.61 ft on 07-04-2025 (P) 2. 24.27 ft on 10-16-2018 3. 14.83 ft on 05-29-2016 water.noaa.gov/gauges/gctt2
Horrific: *another* flash flood emergency in SW TX. Uvalde/Knippa areas: “Between 10 and 20 inches of rain have fallen over the past 48 to 60 hours with up to 8 inches in the last 2 hours. Flash flooding is already occurring with numerous water rescues and numerous structures impacted by water.”
Alerts from NWS Austin/San Antonio TX (UNOFFICIAL)EWX issues Flash Flood Emergency [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: catastrophic] for Uvalde [TX] till Jul 16, 10:00 AM CDT * At 406 AM CDT, emergency management re... at Thu, 16 Jul 2026 09:06:31 +0000 via IEMbot Additional Details Here.
Hang on tight: "New results this month from an array of the world’s top climate models have only strengthened the outlook for a potential record-smashing El Niño event, most likely peaking toward year’s end." (h/t to @zekehausfather.com on this news) yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/this...
This could be the strongest El Niño on record » Yale Climate ConnectionsAlready, tropical cyclones are peppering the Pacific and skipping the Atlantic, and U.S. temperatures are topsy-turvy.yaleclimateconnections.orgYipes. Caribou ME being in a 10-14% risk area for significant tornadoes was not on my Summer Weather Bingo Card.
Chris LegroSPC has issued a 10% area for tornado risk (at intensity level 1 no less), which is a first for that part of the forecast area. This is NOT your typical summer severe thunderstorm risk for areas with a lot of people sleeping and playing outdoors.
Maricopa County (Phoenix area) has done amazing work over the past decade in documenting the full range of direct and indirect heat deaths and finding ways to reduce that toll. Sad to see this major funding shortfall looming.
Zahra HirjiNew story (from the weekend): Arizona's Maricopa County has made progress in preventing heat-related deaths in recent years. But another scorching summer and dwindling funding threaten that trend. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
With help from an easterly upper wave in Texas, the usual U.S. cooler-to-the-N/warmer-to-the-S temp gradient was bizarrely reversed today, like a summer version of the classic winter El Niño flip-flop. Late-PM temps: 110°F+ in eastern MT 95-100°F in eastern CO 85-90°F in OK 80-85°F on TX coast
Alan GerardAnother day with all-time record shattering heat across the globe, including the US where SLC and Billings both set new all-time record high temps. A bit alarming given that 2027 is expected to be the record hot year post strong El Nino. balancedweather.substack.com/p/all-time-r...
Never good to see two fire starts like this in an atmosphere that's approaching and in some cases exceeding all-time highs over the region (e.g., 109F in Salt Lake City). :-(
Chris BianchiNEW: Two wildfire starts, both near Steamboat Springs. The Fishhook fire (20 acres, per Watch Duty data) and the Green Ridge fire (8 acres) both sparked today. Winds gusting 20-30 mph in the area with hot + dry conditions. Photos: Karina Lukens and Grasiela Michaels #COwx
Intensifying El Niño events, like the one we're in now, tend to favor long-track Pacific typhoons over Atlantic hurricanes. And away we go... :-/ @climateconnections.bsky.social
Dr. Jeff MastersAfter rapidly intensifying by an impressive 100 mph (160 km/h) in 36 hours, Super Typhoon #Bevi has become the 3rd Cat 5 of the year: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/supe...
Indian monsoon rains are almost always generous during La Niña. However, when El Niño is kicking in (like it is now), the outcomes get more variable. Classic explainer from the climate.gov folks: www.climate.gov/news-feature...
ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d thinkOne of ENSO’s most important influences is to the Indian Monsoon—the large-scale circulation pattern that brings the Indian subcontinent the vast majority of its yearly rainfall. And while La Niñas te...www.climate.govDr. Jeff MastersA late-arriving and weak monsoon has left a 40% rainfall deficit in India in June: 99.5 mm fell, vs. a normal of 165.3 mm. Since 1901, only four years, 2009 (87.6 mm), 1905 (91.9 mm), 2014 (92.8 mm) and 1926 (96.7 mm), had a worse June monsoon. Agriculture is suffering as a result.
Already a terrible fire weekend in the US Southwest. Three firefighters killed + two seriously injured in far W CO on Sat (Snyder-Mesa Fire). The Cottonwood Fire (E Utah) is approaching 100K acres + 0% contained. Pockets of thick smoke reached the Denver/Boulder area on Sat night.
Daniel SwainNOAA SPC has once again upgraded today's fire weather risk in western Colorado & Four Corners region to "extremely critical"--marking rare third consecutive day. Multiple existing fires will likely make further large runs today, & new ignitions willl take off quickly. #COwx #AZwx
This week's multiple cases of climate irony (activities re heat/climate awareness cancelled because of heat) remind me of my hapless summer visit many moons ago to the Peshtigo (WI) Fire Museum, commemorating the deadliest wildfire on record. I found a note on the door: "Closed Because of Heat."
Roland PeasePerfect. Record-breaking heatwave stops Reform climate debate. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...