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The rate of VAT on household electricity bills will be cut from 5% to 0% from 1 October. It is expected to take about £45 off the average bill, at a cost to the exchequer of around £850 million in 2026–27. A few immediate thoughts:

Accepting the recommendations of the Fingleton Review

Thank you!

From my piece on the future of social care in today's Observer observer.co.uk/news/busines...

Here's a remarkable stat. From 2004 to 2024, the number of people aged 65 and above in England increased by 3 million, or 38%. Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 and above receiving long-term social care support fell by 235,000, or 37%.

My assessment of Reeves' time as Chancellor, informed by the views of lots of smart people. observer.co.uk/news/politic...

Top summary by @benzaranko.bsky.social in today’s Observer which cites my comments (see also blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/bftbblog2607...) as well as comments by the excellent Jun Du & Simon French. @regstud.bsky.social @acadsocsciences.bsky.social @cssjournal.bsky.social @prt1969.bsky.social

A very fair and balanced assessment of Rachel Reeves' time as Chancellor by @benzaranko.bsky.social, summarising the views of me and a dozen other economists. observer.co.uk/news/politic...

Pernickety factual point. Government figures keep talking about how English NHS waiting lists are falling. They are not. They have increased in the last two months (up by 172k since March). They've fallen since Labour entered office, but that's not the same thing.

Interesting impact of the renters' rights act noted in Foxtons trading update yesterday, with students using it to end their tenancies early.

Fiscal policy is for life, not just for Budget time. My piece on the OBR's long-term projections, which get far less attention than their assessments of performance against the fiscal rules, but which are far more interesting 👇 observer.co.uk/news/busines...

It's all taxes, including things like VAT, council tax, not just taxes on earnings - if that helps?

Great chart

Me, making myself popular for the Observer: observer.co.uk/news/busines... This first appeared in my newsletter, with various other nuggets of content - sign up here: observer.co.uk/newsletters

An ageing population will mean higher spending on pensions and the NHS, which risks putting the UK national debt on an unsustainable long-term trajectory, per the OBR. The government should consider shifting the balance of tax towards older people, to support revenues as the population ages.

This is a very fun piece on the different camps in the billionaire tax debate. I particularly liked this paragraph 👇 “They are probably French”

I don't always agree with Simon (indeed, he links here to several pieces of mine which disagree with him!) but he's always worth reading

Great chart from the OBR. If the low productivity trends of the last 15 years persist, someone born in 1991 will experience no more cumulative GDP growth over their lifetime than someone born in 1901.

An incredible detail in @paticlarke.bsky.social's piece about the battle to provide tech solutions to the UK government observer.co.uk/news/technol...

Right - but sometimes local tax revenues are going to fluctuate for reasons completely detached from the decisions made by the mayor / local government, and if that feeds through to the resources available for public services, that's what could fuel concerns about "postcode lotteries"