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Boo louder dweebs

Also worth noting that the Latino undecideds (14%) are a tick higher than whites, as well. Granted, the 13% of whites will likely vote in greater numbers simply based on volume. But the narrative that most undecideds are disillusioned Cornyn voters who eventually come home, it's not all that.

I think probably 55/45 or 60/40 Paxton. Slight edge but nothing major

Appreciate that. I was actually a double major in undergrad with the second being poli sci (long story), so I like getting nerdy with the data. But yeah, around the time a certain someone took over, it became pointless to even broach the subject over there because of what your mentions would become

In the net, I still think the undecided pool favors Paxton some, but it's not ALL Cornyn voters. Both sides are likely to gain. So, if the 85% of the set-in-stone electorate is truly Talarico +5, I do think that would hold over the final 15%. The question is obviously IF.

What that should tell you is that while Paxton certainly has some persuadable undecideds ripe for the picking (Cornyn voters), Talarico can at least somewhat counter that by gradually picking up more Crockett voters. In short, it's both sides — not just one — that have an opportunity to expand.

The downside of today’s poll (45-40) is that if they pushed undecideds harder (19% lean GOP, 10% Dem, 66% TBD), the margin would shrink a bit. HOWEVER, there is actually a slightly greater percentage of Black undecideds (17) than white (13). texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-j...

“Okay, but what are bored randos betting at Kalshi” — idiots

Hello FBI, I would like to report this 9th inning for review

More like Walkman amirite

The Angels are a treasure

I've mentioned this a few times: One thing social media has made crystal clear to me is how extremely uncomfortable a lot of people are with the concept of uncertainty. People do insane mental gymnastics to make probabilities feel either 100% or 0%, because numbers in between break their brains

Besides the obvious fact that betting markets aren’t polls, it’s always amusing to watch how poorly people handle the concept of probabilities. If a weatherman tells you in the morning “45% chance of severe storms today,” would you bet your life savings on a completely sunny day?

Did he call the league office on Bonds? I’ve been assured that he’s equally guilty, if he didn’t. 😉

“I will never accept that Biden won the 2020 election!” Cool story, go talk it out in therapy

The bull case for the Astros is they’ve somehow hovered close to .500 with Pena missing significant time and being somewhat limited when he’s played. If he’s right…

There are times in life in which the eye test has a place

Sousa in this spot is fine because his stuff is actually good. Not the case with BK

The helmet tap for a swinging K is the ultimate “you got owned”