Профиль

While I understand the sentiment, I actually disagree with this. History definitely rhymes right now, but I think the tendency to equate the present with the 1930s is analytically insufficient, and avoid all kinds of questions of novel assemblages of power that are not identical. 

As Adam Sawyer and I have gone to great lengths to explain, the FY to date AVERAGE is typically very different than the CURRENT ESTIMATED AVERAGE (i.e. Interval ADP). We've explained this as recently as this past Monday, so please get good info. Thx! austinkocher.substack.com/p/breaking-d...

Breaking Down ICE's Latest Detention Data w/ Adam SawyerAdam Sawyer and I walk through the problem that Detention Reports solves, explain new features of the site, and emphasize the importance of getting data from trusted, reliable sources.austinkocher.substack.com

If we could see data for this, I’d very much be interested! Feel free to release it anytime.

Watch or listen to my full conversation with the DU Courtwatch team, and read the recap, at austinkocher.substack.com.

Austin Kocher | SubstackDecode the U.S. immigration system with clear analysis backed by data and designed for curious readers. Click to read Austin Kocher, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.austinkocher.substack.com

Jenni came to this work through her own family's years in the system. Her advice is the simplest thing any of us can do. Go bear witness. Even if you don't follow all the legal jargon, sitting in a courtroom will teach you a lot.

Jasmine grew up in Aurora. She describes how thin the line in that courtroom is, where the only real difference between her and the person in custody can come down to a uniform.

The GEO-run facility covers its skylights with a painted image of the sky and lines its walls with awards and value words like accountability and character. It advertises its own decency while keeping what happens inside almost entirely out of view.

Ella put the reason for the whole project in one line. "The immigration court system as we know it today only exists because of a complete lack of transparency."

The DU Court Transparency Project is led by Rebecca Galemba, with Ella Iveslätt, Jasmine Salgado Simental, and Jenni Gutierrez Marquez. They sit in the gallery, take everything down by hand because no phones or laptops get past the door, and turn it into a public record.

Woaaah

All of this comes from data ICE was required to publish every two weeks, a mandate Congress just removed. The charts, the numbers, and the full method are in the post. austinkocher.substack.com/p/over-60000... @immigrantjustice.bsky.social @americasvoice.bsky.social

Over 600,000 People Booked Into ICE Detention Centers Since Start of Trump II Administration65,000 people are currently in ICE detention, but the full impact is much larger and most detained people are deported. 1.75M people could be detained by the end of the second Trump administration.austinkocher.substack.com

The real total could run higher. Ending Temporary Protected Status for 350,000 Haitians, with close to a million more TPS holders behind them, turns lawful residents into people ICE can detain. Mega master hearings swept up 27,000 people in a single month.

Getting booked into detention is only part of it. More people released from ICE detention are now deported, near 80 percent of them, up from about 60 percent under Biden.

If the current pace holds, the total passes 800,000 by the end of this year and reaches roughly 1.75 million by the end of the term in January 2029. I show the projection in the post and explain exactly how I built it from the released data.

The figure usually in the news is how many people are in custody right now, about 65,000. Counting cumulatively shows how many families, workplaces, faith centers, and sports leagues have been touched, and how many working-age people pulled out of the U.S. workforce.