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AEA Journals

The American Economic Association is a non-profit, non-partisan, scholarly association dedicated to the discussion and publication of economics research.

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AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Social Push and the Direction of Innovation" by Elias Einiö, Josh Feng, and Xavier Jaravel.

Social Push and the Direction of Innovation(Forthcoming Article) - What are the implications of unequal access to innovation careers for the direction of innovation and inequality? Leveraging novel linked datasets in the United States and Finland, we document that innovators create products more likely to be purchased by consumers like them in terms of gender, socioeconomic status, and age. Homophily exists both within narrow product categories and across industries, and has been stable in recent decades. Incorporating this “social push” channel into a growth model, we estimate that unequal access to innovation careers has a large effect on cost-of-living inequality and long-run growth.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "High School Effects on Civic Engagement" by Kirsten Slungaard Mumma.

High School Effects on Civic Engagement(Forthcoming Article) - Preparing young people for citizenship is a foundational purpose of public education, yet little is known about whether or how K-12 schools impact civic engagement. Using education, birth, and voting records for nine cohorts of students in Indiana, I estimate and assess the validity of high school e!ects on voting. School e!ects on voting are significant and practically meaningful: a one standard deviation increase in school civic e!ects increases the probability of voting by 2.1 percentage points (5.3 percent) and also predicts increases in voter registration and times voting. School civic e!ects are positively associated with peer parental civic norms.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending" by Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Nanyu Chen, and Melih Firat.

From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending(Forthcoming Article) - The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important yet underexplored questions about the transmission of monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policy (MaPP) to the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, we find that nonbanks act as shock absorbers, cushioning nonfinancial firms from both MaPP and MP tightening. These shocks drive credit away from weaker banks toward nonbanks, raising concerns about credit quality. Our findings highlight that the side effects of tighter MaPP and MP are nontrivial as credit intermediation migrates to a sector largely outside the regulatory perimeter, posing new financial stability risks.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Using Machine Learning to Generate, Clarify, and Improve Economic Models" by Annie Liang.

Using Machine Learning to Generate, Clarify, and Improve Economic Models(Forthcoming Article) - This article examines how machine learning and other computational techniques can contribute to the development of economic models. First, comparing economic models to flexible algorithms can help clarify the strengths and limitations of existing models, for instance how far they are from the predictive limit. Second, algorithms can adversarially probe economic models to identify cases in which the theoretical predictions fail. Third, “hybrid” models can combine interpretable economic structure with flexible learning methods to leverage the strengths of both. Finally, large language models introduce qualitatively new possibilities, from simulating human responses to generating novel hypotheses. Throughout, I emphasize both promise and limits: while machine learning can uncover patterns that standard models miss, translating these algorithmic insights into interpretable and portable economic understanding typically still requires human judgment.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges" by Oliver Pfäuti.

The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges(Forthcoming Article) - The recent inflation surge brought inflation back on people’s minds. I quantify when and how much attention to inflation changes and derive the macroeconomic implications of these attention changes. I estimate an attention threshold at an inflation rate of 4 percent, that attention doubles when inflation exceeds this threshold, and that supply shocks have stronger and more persistent effects on inflation in times of high attention. Developing a model featuring the attention threshold, I show that attention changes offer a joint explanation for inflation surges, inflation’s co-movement with inflation expectations, and a long last mile of disinflation.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory" by Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, and Francesco Zanetti.

The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory(Forthcoming Article) - We study the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions by constructing a new index of real-time port congestion using Automatic Identification System data from container ships and a spatial clustering algorithm. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links upstream production slack to downstream supply shortages and captures output and price responses to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, spare capacity, and market tightness provide novel identification restrictions. We find demand and supply shocks drove US disinflation in 2020, while the inflation surge in 2021 was driven mainly by supply chain shocks.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Predictably Unpredictable Inspections" by Ashvin Gandhi, Andrew Olenski, and Maggie Shi.

Predictably Unpredictable Inspections(Forthcoming Article) - Inspections are a common tool for acquiring information and incentivizing compliance. Though typically unannounced, they often follow a predictable schedule. We study how this predictability shapes firm effort and patient outcomes in U.S. nursing homes. Nursing homes “slack” in the low-risk period following an inspection and ramp up effort as their next inspection approaches. Patient survival mirrors this pattern, suggesting meaningful consequences for care quality. We embed these estimates in a dynamic model capturing how inspection regimes incentivize effort and reveal quality. Unpredictability induces as much additional effort as increasing inspection frequency by 10 percent, with minimal loss of informational value.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5 Million Neighborhoods" by Sam Asher, Kritarth Jha, Paul Novosad, Anjali Adukia, and Brandon Tan.

Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5 Million Neighborhoods(Forthcoming Article) - We study residential segregation and access to public services across 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods in India. Muslim and Scheduled Caste segregation in India is high by global standards, and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the United States. Within cities, public facilities and infrastructure are systematically less available in Muslim and Scheduled Caste neighborhoods. Nearly all regressive allocation is across neighborhoods within cities—at the most informal and least studied form of government. These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution" by Hans-Joachim Voth, Bruno Caprettini, and Alex Trew.

Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution(Forthcoming Article) - We establish a link between labor scarcity and the adoption of labor-saving technology in industrializing England. During the Napoleonic Wars, more than 10 percent of the male population served in the armed forces. Where recruitment was heavy, more machines economizing on labor were adopted. Naval recruitment, instrumented by warships’ coastal access, provides exogenous variation in labor scarcity and suggests that the link between labor shortages and adoption is causal. Where mechanical skills were abundant, the impact of labor scarcity on adoption appears to be larger.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Union Bargaining Power and the Amenity-Wage Tradeoff" by Lorenzo Lagos.

Union Bargaining Power and the Amenity-Wage Tradeoff(Forthcoming Article) - This paper studies how collective bargaining affects wages and amenities. By merging collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) to linked employer-employee data in Brazil, I combine rich contracted amenities with wage information. I implement a difference-in-difference strategy that exploits a court ruling enforcing CBA continuation (i.e., ultractivity) to estimate the effects of union bargaining power. Strengthening unions raises wages and amenities without reducing employment—increasing retention despite some labor-labor substitution. A revealed preference approach shows that amenities account for 45% of total compensation gains. These findings suggest that collective bargaining can offset monopsony power, but employers retain the right-tomanage workforce composition.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Durables and the Marginal Propensity to Spend" by Nathan Zorzi and Martin Beraja.

Durables and the Marginal Propensity to Spend(Forthcoming Article) - Durables represent a large share of households’ marginal propensity to spend (MPX). We develop a quantitative model of spending that takes durables into account and matches a rich set of empirical regularities simultaneously. Scaling the response of non-durables provides a poor approximation of the MPX on durables when it comes to its distribution in the population, its persistence over time, and its cyclicality. As an application, we study how the MPX varies with the size of stimulus checks and find that it declines more slowly compared to a model of purely non-durable spending.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Inequality and Racial Backlash: Evidence from the Reconstruction Era and the Freedmen’s Bureau" by Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag, and Bryan A. Stuart.

Inequality and Racial Backlash: Evidence from the Reconstruction Era and the Freedmen’s Bureau(Forthcoming Article) - How do majority groups respond to narrowing inequality in racially polarized environments? We study this by examining the Freedmen’s Bureau, an agency created after the US Civil War to aid former slaves and launch institutional reform in the South. Using new historical records and an event-study approach, we estimate the Bureau’s impact on political, social, and economic outcomes. Vote shares for Democrats, the party that previously championed slavery and opposed Black civil rights, initially eroded in Bureau counties, but these impacts faded as federal oversight weakened. Racial backlash emerged rapidly and persisted, suggesting White majorities sought to offset Black progress.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "The Long-Term Earnings' Effects of a Credit Market Disruption" by Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Marta De Philippis, Enrico Sette, and Eliana Viviano.

The Long-Term Earnings' Effects of a Credit Market Disruption(Forthcoming Article) - Using a unique matched bank-employer-employee administrative dataset for Italy, we construct an exogenous firm-level measure of exposure to the credit shock during the Global Financial Crisis, based on pre-crisis firm-bank relationships. We track outcomes for firms and workers up to 11 years after the shock. More exposed firms experience persistently lower growth in bank credit, which in turn leads to weaker investment and employment dynamics due to capital-labor complementarity. More capital-intensive firms and their workers suffer the most. Displaced workers reallocate primarily to less capital-intensive firms, incurring persistent losses in labor earnings.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing" by Diego R. Känzig.

The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing(Forthcoming Article) - This paper studies the economic impacts of carbon pricing. Exploiting institutional features of the European carbon market and high-frequency data, I identify carbon policy shocks and trace their dynamic effects. A restrictive carbon policy shock raises energy prices, reduces emissions, spurs green innovation, but decreases economic activity—disproportionately burdening poorer households. Not only are the poor more affected because of their higher energy spending, but they also experience larger income losses. These indirect, general-equilibrium effects via income and employment play an important role in the transmission of carbon pricing policies, accounting for about two-thirds of the aggregate consumption response.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in the AER: "Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class" by Benjamin Goldman, Jamie Gracie, and Sonya R. Porter.

Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class(Forthcoming Article) - Americans rarely marry outside their race or class group, a pattern with well-documented implications for inequality and intergenerational mobility. Limited exposure may partly explain these low intergroup marriage rates. We instrument for exposure using variation in childhood neighborhoods based on whether other race and class groups had more opposite-sex children of similar age. Exposure increases interclass (high- and low-parent-income) marriage but has no detectable effect on interracial (White and Black) marriage. A spatial marriage model predicts that residential segregation—one of many forms of exposure—accounts for more than one third of marital sorting by class but less than 5 percent by race.www.aeaweb.org
AEA Journals

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "How Worker Productivity and Wages Grow with Tenure and Experience: The Firm Perspective" by Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Søren Leth-Petersen, and Matthew D. Shapiro.

How Worker Productivity and Wages Grow with Tenure and Experience: The Firm Perspective(Forthcoming Article) - How worker productivity evolves with tenure and experience shapes life-cycle earnings and losses from job separation. Yet, worker-level productivity is hard to identify from observational data. This paper introduces a firm survey designed to separate effects of on-the-job tenure from sector-specific experience on the trajectory of on-the-job productivity. Several findings emerge. (i) On-the-job productivity growth initially exceeds wage growth, consistent with wages not being allocative period-by-period. (ii) Previous sector-specific experience reduces on-the-job tenure needed, though not by one-to-one, to reach a maximal productivity. (iii) There is substantial heterogeneity across jobs in the extent that previous sector-specific experience reduces tenure needed.www.aeaweb.org
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