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I guess I broadly agree that, on a national scale, their effects are often overstated. But in terms of individual primaries that are already competitive, huge spending from AIPAC/DMFI/etc. can absolutely be decisive. There aren't many such primaries in any one cycle, but over time they add up.

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I would characterize this race, Haley Stevens's earlier primary against Andy Levin, IL-08 this year, among many others as such. That's an impressive resume, no doubt envied by other groups! These groups are good at finding races where they can influence the outcome and then doing so.

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In the aggregate, over multiple cycles, I think these groups' influence is somewhere between puppetmaster of American politics and completely unremarkable, is what I'm saying. I think they are fairly characterized as one of the stronger, though not the only, interest groups influencing D primaries.