Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈: A long time ago, I used to know a lot about…

Great thread! Thanks so much for the effort.

Great thread! Thank you for publishing it. Malcolm Nance has 40 years' experience in the region. He agrees with your assessment. #Iran youtu.be/aAxQQgb0B6o?...

THE US IRAN WAR IS ONYouTube video by Malcolm Nanceyoutu.be

Bruce Wilson

1 мар., 00:27

According to the preeminent expert on the use of air power in warfare, Robert A. Pape, from WW2 to the present the use of air power alone has never achieved regime change. Not once.

Ответ для Bruce Wilson

D

Display Name TBD

1 мар., 01:30

It's a good work of poli sci, but one must consider the particulars. Robert's analysis is not aimed at foreign air intervention in civil wars, where US aerial bombing was decisive in Kosovo and Libya quite recently. Iran is rather unstable. acleddata.com/report/axis-...

The Axis of Resistance and the regional ramifications of Israel’s war on GazaThe strategic balance of power in the Middle East now favors Israel, as two of Iran's key security pillars — regional influence through Axis of Resistance non-state actors and missile and drone capabi...acleddata.com

Ответ для Display Name TBD

D

Display Name TBD

1 мар., 01:36

To be clear, the most likely results of these strikes are still, politically, not much or just more repression, and the next most likely result is civil war, which is horrible. But the latter result is not an outcome of Robert's work, as I understand it. Although it is consistent with OPs thread.

Ответ для Display Name TBD

Bruce Wilson

1 мар., 01:39

I said *air power alone*, meaning: no boots on the ground.

Ответ для Display Name TBD

Etrigan (unrelated)

3 мар., 18:42

I have three different ribbons on my uniform from the time I spent with my boots on the ground in Kosovo.

Ответ для Etrigan (unrelated)

Bruce Wilson

3 мар., 18:56

Guy I know did some of the US Army intel work to trace the criminal networks that were killing people there.

Ответ для Bruce Wilson

Etrigan (unrelated)

3 мар., 18:56

Hard work to do from a plane.

Ответ для Etrigan (unrelated)

Bruce Wilson

3 мар., 19:07

Yes.

Ответ для Display Name TBD

Bruce Wilson

3 мар., 18:54

I'm interested to know if Pape has a response to this.

Andrew Tuck

1 мар., 03:13

Thanks. This is great.

Mark Hogle

1 мар., 00:52

@unroll.skywriter.blue unroll

Ответ для Mark Hogle

Thread Reader by Skywriter | unroller

1 мар., 00:54

The thread as a shareable webpage: https://skywriter.blue/@dataandpolitics.net/3mfwzlua7yc2z

Ответ для Thread Reader by Skywriter | unroller

Space-Age Queequeg

1 мар., 01:12

Thank God for this.

OD1N5'

4 мар., 04:18

The 1979 Iranian Revolution might be worthy of note. It installed the most current leadership structure.

Ответ для OD1N5'

OD1N5'

4 мар., 04:25

Its amazing work I dont mean to criticize. Here comes the I feel. I feel it relevant to discussion.

beefunwellington

1 мар., 00:41

Now do the Confederacy.

Ответ для beefunwellington

Sue

1 мар., 04:56

They're back are they?

Ответ для Sue

J

jrootham

1 мар., 08:46

When did they go away?

Ответ для jrootham

Sue

1 мар., 17:16

It's loser-chic. 🙄

twistmeyer

1 мар., 01:21

By these measures, the US itself is exhibiting signs of FIRC. One can see that our government is serving the interests of at least 1 foreign entity, and not the American people.

Ответ для twistmeyer

Abby's Dad

25 апр., 22:31

Putin bombed us with shit. Trump is a walking shit-bomb.

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

28 февр., 23:57

After WWII, the Allied powers installed democracies in Germany, Italy, and Japan. All three stable 80+ years later. We tried the same formula in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003). Hundreds of thousands died. The Taliban rules Afghanistan today. Why? 1/

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

28 февр., 23:59

Zooming out is important. Foreign-imposed regime changes (FIRCs) are seen as a product of the Cold War, but they aren't. Alex Downes catalogued 120 cases from 1816-2008 in his book. Countries have always tried replacing leaders to get what they want. amazon.com/dp/1501761145 3/

Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs)Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs) [Downes, Alexander B.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs)amazon.com

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:01

FIRCs predate the COld War, US global dominance, and even the steamship. Britain FIRCed Afghanistan in 1839. The US intervened in Nicaragua 1909-12. The Soviet Union FIRCed Afghanistan. Vietnam did Cambodia. South Africa did Lesotho. Replacing leaers seems to be a global shortcut. 4/

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:02

So why FIRC? The logic is cold: intervening states believe the current leader won't serve their interests. So they install someone who they think will. But the imposed leader immediately faces a structural trap because they have TWO constituencies. 5/ belfercenter.org/publication/...

You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate RelationsIn recent decades, the United States has attempted to overthrow the regimes of several other countries in the hopes that the new regimes will be friendly toward Washington. Does foreign-imposed regime...belfercenter.org

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:03

The leader's first constituency is the foreign patron who installed them. Their second is the domestic population they must govern. Those two audiences typically want contradictory things. Every decision signals to one audience that the other won. 6/

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:05

To give historical examples, you cannot simultaneously strengthen AND weaken plantation labor laws. You cannot let United Fruit extract profits AND redirect them to Guatemalan workers. You cannot tolerate political expression in Prague AND restore the Communist Party line through censorship 7/

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:06

The tension between these two constituencies is not a Cold War phenomenon, either. When the US intervened in Nicaragua in 09-12, the new leaders needed to satisfy Washingt's commercial interests and build domestic legitimacy. They failed and instability insued. 8/

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:08

Yet, the examples from WWII seemed as shining counterexamples to a legacy of failure. Democratic FIRCs succeeded. Authoritarian/economic FIRCs failed. This simple relationship got absorved as a law of physics and became the intellectual core of neoconservative foreign policy. 9/

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:11

Many neoconservatives genuinely beieved spreading democracy — even if by force — would yield stable democratic socieities. Iraq in 2003 put this conviction to the test. Not only did Iraq fail spectacularly, the underlying premise misread the evidence. almendron.com/tribuna/wp-c... 10/

almendron.com

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 00:13

Acadeics began studying this failure and realized that the WWII FIRCs didn't create democracies from thin air. They restored democracies. Successful democratization requires prior democratic institutions, economic development, and total military defeat. 11/ www.jstor.org/stable/24480...

Reevaluating Foreign-Imposed Regime Change on JSTOR William G. Nomikos, Alexander B. Downes, Jonathan Monten, Reevaluating Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, International Security, Vol. 38, No. 3 (WINTER 2013/14), pp. 184-195www.jstor.org

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

chrisvls

1 мар., 07:56

The link didn't seem to work... I will say that there's a lot of devil in the details. Machiavelli, actually, is super interesting here... all about how to get control, keep control of states. Don't push it too far for United Fruit or there will be trouble...

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

under-where

1 мар., 01:59

So what I’m hearing is, now would be a great time to do regime change in America, while there are still opposition leaders to install, and a political constituency for democracy?

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Rebecca Ore

1 мар., 04:17

Some have pointed out that those countries did have some experience with democracy before their fascist eras. And had experience with industrial development.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Verity Imelda Player

1 мар., 01:30

I love the way that gets turned into a verb...

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Chris

1 мар., 01:14

That picture reminds me that Andrew the former prince needs a job and I believe he and the pumpkin have some mutuals

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Marco ♨️

1 мар., 01:15

Haven't read that book but as a Mexican I love that cover.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Hogan

1 мар., 19:30

See also The War of the [Your Country Here] Succession, 17--

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Glencora

1 мар., 00:57

Thank you for this thread. l did wonder about this as well, being personally involved with Italy and also, indirectly, interested in Afghanistan, by having volunteered and met many dear people some friends now.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Always Think 1st so U R #WokeAF

1 мар., 01:04

I'll add one more. France trying to rule Mexico after Napoleon took over Spain. But they did leave the bolillo roll behind.

Ответ для Always Think 1st so U R #WokeAF

Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

1 мар., 01:06

They didn't try, they imposed Maximiliano and Carlota on the throne! Cinco de Mayo celebrates a (short-lived) Mexican victory over the French.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Always Think 1st so U R #WokeAF

1 мар., 02:37

That's kind of the point. Maximiliano was rather clueless about governing once they arrived. He got a castle built and the wealthy liked them and their style. But the Mexicans reminded the elite that they to will die. That's the whole Catrina thing for Day of the Dead

Ответ для Always Think 1st so U R #WokeAF

Auckland dweller

1 мар., 03:48

Maximilian was somewhat later than Napoleon I’s attempt to rule Spain. It was Napoleon III who used Max as a tool.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

missmarygri

1 мар., 01:33

Marshall Plan "By 1952, as the [Marshall Plan] funding ended, the economy of every participant state had surpassed pre-war levels; for all Marshall Plan recipients, output in 1951 was at least 35% higher than in 1938." common economies

Ответ для missmarygri

missmarygri

1 мар., 01:36

USSR Molotov's program set multiple objectives for itself. The max. aims set were to obtain economic control over Europe, to adapt European economy to its own, & to convert them into a market for Soviet surpluses. The min. aims consisted of establishing gvts friendly, at least, to the USSR.

Ответ для missmarygri

missmarygri

1 мар., 01:38

Rebuild and partner with vs maintain strict control over Many other factors likely apply as well. I would venture unregulated capitalism (1980s -on) is more of a USSR approach than the post New Deal era.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

Eric V

1 мар., 01:43

false equivalency here

Ответ для Eric V

Violet Says Abolish ICE

1 мар., 08:07

How? We literally did the same things.

Ответ для Data Bear 🏳️‍🌈

dipradan

1 мар., 15:17

Because the 40 Million Afghans had no desire to fight for their countries against a couple hundred thousand Taliban fighters. The only thing the Afghan government wanted to do was to steal money meant for training the Afghan people.