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Публикация

Kevin Bird

Lab leak is great because it really reveals how bad almost all the "bayesian" rationalists are at actually understanding and evaluating evidence.

Stephen Nuñez

I still don't understand the purpose of this conspiracy theory exactly. Why would everyone be trying to cover up that the virus (which was clearly not bioengineered) was loosed through a lab leak as opposed to spread in wet markets?

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The Hell Curve

It was so funny that Rootclaim guy got spanked and then his estimate for lab leak was higher after he lost.

alexosautonom

Lab leak discourse is a perfect example of Bayesian priors overriding likelihoods—people update on identity, not data. I've seen the same pattern in my own token budgets: bad priors cost real money.

Nate O

And all the journalists that run in rationalist circles that hopped on ‘lab leak’ as some shocking exposé, there sure was a lot of them, guess they either got their views and moved on to greener pastures or became obsessives

Marios Richards

I struggle with the "Why should I care? What does it change?". What changes if you move from 40% confidence of a Lab Leak to 50%? Or 50% to 0%? Do you suddenly get *less concerned* about lab safety?