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These results suggest the benefit of early implementation of NPIs and swift rollout of vaccines to the most vulnerable. Further analyses are required at a more granular level. Study led by @afontanet.bsky.social 🧪

Structural factors, such as high trust in the national government and low ratio of population at risk of poverty were also associated with lower excess mortality.🧪

Lower excess mortality was associated with implementing stringent NPIs when hospital admissions were still low in 2020 and rapid rollout of vaccines in the elderly in early 2021. Countries which implemented NPIs while hospital admissions were low experienced lower GDP losses in 2020. 🧪

We identified notable differences in seeding events, particularly in early 2020 and when the Alpha variant emerged, likely contributing to notable differences in excess mortality between countries. These differences were more limited from July 2021 onwards. 🧪

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Done! @lemeylab.bsky.social was already there.

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Hello, I’d like to contribute to the Science feed. I’m a Prof in Infectious disease epidemiology and modelling at Institut Pasteur, Paris. research.pasteur.fr/en/member/si...

Simon Cauchemez | Research - Institut PasteurThis one-week course offers a comprehensive introduction to the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, tailored for students and professionals in science, medicine, and public health. For more information and program, please, visit the course […]research.pasteur.fr

Added you want I saw you! You're in the second ID Modelling pack! Best

Hi Seb, I thought I had already added you... it's done now! Best Simon

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Hi, you were already in the list. Best

Hi, you were already in the list! Best

Extensive sensitivity analysis was done to assess robustness of results to modelling assumptions. The study highlights the relevance of nirsevimab administration to reduce the burden of RSV hosp. Work led by @abrault.bsky.social.

The blue curve shows the fit to the data. Red one shows the scenario without treatment. We estimate the campaign prevented about 6k hosp. for RSV broncholitis. It’s about 1 hosp. prevented per 40 doses administered. Efficacy was estimated at 73% (61-84).

To evaluate this impact, we developed a math model that captured key properties of RSV (e.g. waning immunity, severity profile by age), of the French pop (e.g. contact patterns by age) and of the campaign (e.g. doses administered over time) and was calibrated to the data.